Sugarcane Production Trends and Regional Yields
Brazil’s sugarcane output has fluctuated in recent years, peaking at a record 705 million tonnes in the 2023/24 harvest, thanks to ideal weather and improved yields fas.usda.gov However, the ongoing 2024/25 crop is forecast around 645 million tonnes (about 8.5% lower) due to unusual dry conditions early in the planting season fas.usda.gov. The Center-South (CS) region – Brazil’s main cane belt – consistently achieves higher yields, roughly 24% above those in the North-Northeast (NNE)apps.fas.usda.gov, owing to greater mechanization and advanced farming inputs. São Paulo state alone contributes close to half of national cane output, whereas NNE states account for under 10%, with notably lower per-hectare yields. These regional disparities underscore why CS producers can rebound quickly under good rains, as seen in 2023/24, while NNE output remains limited by terrain and climate.
Export Market Dynamics – Major Buyers and Volumes
Brazil is the world’s largest sugar exporter, and 2023/24 saw record exports of around 35–38 million tonnes datamarnews.com. The chart highlights the top destinations for Brazilian sugar in that season. China was the largest importer (~3.9 MMT), followed by India (~3.3 MMT) and Indonesia (~2.4 MMT)apps.fas.usda.gov. Other significant buyers included Algeria and Morocco, each taking ~1.7–1.9 MMT. High global demand and production shortfalls in other countries (e.g. India’s output fell due to poor harvests) have made Brazil a critical supplier. Despite these exports, port congestion and shipping delays have become a bottleneck – at one point in late 2023, ships faced up to 35-day waits at Santos port to load sugar reuters.com. Trade analysts noted that Brazil’s export capacity, rather than production, was the limiting factor in easing global sugar shortages reuters.com.
Domestic Market Trends – Pricing and Consumption
On the domestic front, Brazil’s internal sugar market absorbs only about9.5 million tonnesof sugar annually – roughly one-quarter of the country’s production in a bumper year. The pie chart illustrates this split: thevast majority (~77%) of Brazil’s sugar output is exported, with the remainder meeting domestic needs. In 2024, domestic sugar prices rose to multi-year highs alongside world prices, then begancooling in early 2025. For instance, wholesale crystal sugar in São Paulo fell about 9% during February 2025, ending the month aroundR$139 per 50‑kg bag cepea.esalq.usp.br. This decline came despite the off-season (when supply is low), as buyers resisted high prices. Per capita sugar consumption in Brazil remains high (over 30 kg/year), but health trends have kept it relatively flat. Thus, domestic sugar demand is steady, and internal prices primarily reflect export parity and seasonal factors. In all, Brazil’s domestic market is well-supplied – even in record export years – due to the huge production volume.
Ethanol Production and Sugarcane Usage Mix
Brazil’s sugarcane is dual-purposed: it produces both sugar and ethanol fuel. Industry output shifts depending on market signals. In years of low sugar prices (e.g. 2018/19), mills maximized ethanol – only about42% of sucrose went to sugarthat year vs 58% to ethanol apps.fas.usda.gov. By contrast, with the sugar rally in 2023/24, mills favored sugar; roughly46% of cane’s sugars were crystallized into sugar(a higher share than prior years), with 54% fermented into ethanol. Brazil produced45.5 MMT of sugar and 35.3 billion liters of ethanolin 2023/24 apps.fas.usda.gov, a balance tilted more toward sugar than in the previous few seasons. The chart compares the sugar vs ethanol output mix in 2018/19 and 2023/24, illustrating this swing. Notably, even with record sugar output, ethanol production stayed robust – aided by expansion of corn ethanol, which supplied ~2–3 billion liters. Moving into 2025, mills are expected to continue prioritizing sugar production given high global prices and a forecast global sugar deficit. However, if sugar prices dip or gasoline prices rise, the flexible Brazilian system will shift a larger share of cane back to ethanol.
Industry Challenges – Climate, Labor, and Logistics
Despite recent successes, Brazil’s sugar industry faces several challenges. Climate impactsare a top concern: the 2024 drought and extreme heat led to widespreadcane field firesin São Paulo and Paraná, prompting Conab to cut the 2024/25 cane harvest forecast by 11 million tonnes. Such droughts, likely exacerbated by climate change, can slash yields and sugar recovery, as seen by an estimated 8.8% drop in yield this season. On the labor front, the sector has undergone rapidmechanization. Over95% of cane in the Center-South is now machine-harvested revistacultivar.com, greatly reducing the need for manual cutters. While this boosts efficiency and sustainability (less pre-harvest burning), it poses challenges for employment and demands worker upskilling to operate machinery. In the North-Northeast, however, only ~23% is mechanized due to rugged terrain, meaning labor practices differ regionally. Lastly,logistics bottleneckscontinue to trouble the industry. Brazil’s export surge has strained port capacity – in late 2023, over 70 ships queued at ports, and sugar literallypiled up at terminalsawaiting shipment. Infrastructure improvements are needed, as traders note Brazil “cannot export the entire production” fast enough, creating alogisticaldeficit even when production is ample. Addressing these climate, labor, and logistics issues will be key to sustaining Brazil’s sugar industry growth and resilience in the coming years.
In summary, as of February 2025 Brazil’s sugar industry is navigating a mix of short-term hurdles and long-term challenges. Production has been trimmed by climate effects, but remains high; exports, while off record levels, are still dominant globally; the domestic market is stable; ethanol provides flexibility and is bolstered by policy support. Key challenges like erratic weather, cost pressures, labor practices, and logistical constraints are being met with a combination of innovation, policy engagement, and sustainability efforts. These factors will shape how Brazil’s sugar sector maintains its resilience and growth in the face of evolving conditions.
For February 2025, recent market estimates indicate a slight further increase in prices compared to January. Current reports suggest:
Raw Sugar: Approximately $540 per metric ton (around 24 cents per pound).
Refined Sugar: Around $600 per metric ton, reflecting a white premium of roughly $60 per ton.